The Cycle Method: invest in the big wave without reading charts

1Demand is everything

An asset keeps its price only when people need it. There are two kinds of demand:

In every cycle both kinds of demand arrive together, so almost everything goes up. The difference shows in the crash:

2Buy the leader of each sector

Crypto is a set of industries. Inside each one, users and money gather around one or two leaders, and in a crash the leader is the one that survives. A simple long-term book takes the leaders only:

Eight questions before a coin enters your portfolio

The Portfolio page keeps a score for every coin.

1. Real demandDo people use it and pay fees?
2. Sector #1–2Is it #1–2 of its sector by users, volume or TVL?
3. Staking first for a layer 1Can you stake it and unstake easily? Staking income lets you sit through a long sideways market without touching your capital.
4. Funding or revenueDid it raise $200M+ from top funds, or does it fund itself with real revenue?
5. A clear edgeLower fees, more speed (thousands of transactions per second, under two seconds), a wallet that is easy to use?
6. Known teamIs the team known, from strong tech companies?
7. Cheap vs its rivalIs its market cap still low compared with its main rival?
8. Money flowing inRising volume, TVL (money deposited in its apps) and DEX volume? DEX volume rising first often shows where money goes next.

New coins vs proven coins

The whole method rests on a real cycle high — the top of a clear bull wave followed by a fall of six months or more.

3Understand who moves the price

Big waves are pushed by large players, not by the crowd — the crowd only makes the market go sideways because it never agrees. A large player needs a coin with a good story and new buyers who are not stuck at old highs, and needs the old holders to have already sold.

It is also why leaders of real sectors are chosen for the next push, and why dead projects stay dead.

4When to buy: only in the deep drawdown

A cycle has four phases. You buy in accumulation, the quiet bottom after the crash, when the crowd has given up and only convinced holders are left.

1. Accumulationyou buy here
2. Markupyou hold
3. Distributionyou sell here
4. Markdownyou wait

In practice that means a deep fall from the cycle high — the top of the last weekly and monthly bull wave, the high that was followed by a fall lasting more than six months, often more than a year.

Not a cycle: a sharp drop of a few weeks inside a bull market does not count. It is a correction, not a new cycle.

Optional confirmation, if you like charts: Bitcoin’s weekly and monthly momentum turning up together, and an altcoin’s daily moving averages bunching together so price can break above them easily.

You do not need it: when price reaches your level, you buy.

5How to buy: split, equal lots, lower the average

1. Split the capital

   Large caps for safety, mid caps for the multiple. Keep an emergency reserve outside it.

   Large caps 50%Mid caps 50%

   50/50 default70/30 calmer30/70 more risk
2. Equal lots, evenly spaced

   Divide each coin’s capital into equal lots — five by default — and place them at even steps from the first buy level to the last (the ladders in step 4). The spacing is chosen so that the last lot uses up the last of the capital exactly at the bottom of the zone: you never run out of money before the deepest level, and you never have money left over after it.

3. Lower your cost on rebounds — three conditions
   • More than half of the coin’s capital is already invested
   • You hold at least three lots
   • The price rebounds above your most expensive lot (+5%)

   Then sell that one lot, keep the cash apart, and buy back with it when the price is 30% below where you sold. Same money, more coins, a lower average — and no new capital.

   Example · $10,000 in a coin, lots of $2,000

   1. Bought at $25, $20 and $1560% invested
   2. Rebound to $26.25 — sell the $25 lot$2,100 cash
   3. Price falls to $18.38 — buy back114 coins

   Before313.3 coins$19.15 a coin

   →

   After347.6 coins$17.26 a coin

   The same $6,000 invested — more coins, lower average.

4. Take your capital back at 2×

   When the position is worth twice the money you put in, sell exactly that money. The coins you keep cost you nothing.

5. No leverage while holding

   Before an altcoin season the market often makes one violent drop that wipes out every leveraged buyer — a selling climax. Unleveraged holders survive it; that drop is usually the last one.

6When to sell: a money plan, decided in advance

Money is only useful with a purpose. Before you buy, write down two things:

Then sell in this order:

1. Take your capital back at 2×

   From then on, only profit is at risk.

2. Sell at the target zone, as far as your money plan needs

   Sell what your plan needs across that zone and keep the rest. If a target looks unrealistic, change the plan, not your discipline.

   Large caps5×–8×the bottom

   Mid caps6×–10×the bottom

The eight rules on one page

1. Buy only what has real demand.Price follows demand. When a coin is only held for speculation, the price eventually goes to zero.
2. Leaders only.Pick the #1–2 coin of each sector. Bitcoin is the king: over time every altcoin loses value against it.
3. Split the capital.Large caps for safety, mid caps for the multiple — 50/50 by default. No borrowing, no leverage, no futures.
4. Wait for the deep drawdown.Large caps −70% to −80%, mid caps −75% to −95% from the cycle high. Until then, ignore the market.
5. Buy in equal lots, evenly spaced.Split the coin’s capital into equal lots at even steps from the first buy level to the last, so the final lot spends the final dollar exactly at the bottom of the zone. Inside the zone you buy: no chart reading, no fear of lower prices.
6. Lower your cost on rebounds.Only after more than half of a coin’s capital is invested: a rebound above your most expensive lot lets you sell that lot and buy it back 30% lower. You never miss the wave.
7. Take your capital back at 2×.Then let the rest ride to the targets of your money plan.
8. Altcoins peak together.When your alts hit their targets, take profit on all of them — don’t swap into “cheap” laggards. Sell weak, keep strong.